Your analysis is correct.
Barring major Safex announcements or developments I expect the Safex price to stay around .0089-.0012 USD.
This matters based on if you’re buying in USD of buying from bitcoins you purchased, held, and which appreciated. If you bought and held btc and buy Safex at .0011 USD you might really be buying at .0066 USD.
If Bitcoin continues to climb the Safex price should fall in terms of Satoshis, unless there is a reoccurance of the previous bull market leading to an increase of price in all coins/tokens. This may be the case based on market prices over the last few days.
The only exception I see to the two points above are if there’s a pump and dump in Safex. I.e. People accumulate coins prior to the Alpha blockchain announcement, hype the price, then sell. This may be occurring as I type this, as Safex just exceeded .0011 USD for the first time in a while, a lot of buys being filled. We should expect this behavior - it’s what I’d do.
Of course, one would need to be able to distinguish between a legitimate rise prior to an announcement and something orchestrated, otherwise you miss a very good buying opportunity.